Why the GOP will win in 2008

Get ready for George W. Bush's third term.

The outcome of the 2008 Presidential election is rapidly being written into the history books.  Oh, yes, there are some blanks left to be filled out: the name of the triumphant Republican, and the name of the vanquished Democrat haven't yet been decided.  There's always the possibility of a third-party candidate, or an independent bid.  But those are details.

The election, for all intents and purposes, is over.

For all that we've chortled about the rifts in the GOP exposed by their current crop of candidates, we're about to see the Democratic Party torn apart on racial and gender lines.  The most vocal supporters of Senator Obama and Senator Clinton have painted themselves into a rhetorical corner where no matter who wins their contest, they will face a vast number of angry, alienated activists who will spend the next several months licking their wounds.  And staying away from the campaign, and the polls, in droves.

This was inevitable.

It's not that Clinton supporters are racists (oh, some probably are, but very few), or that Senator Obama's supporters are sexists (some probably are, but again, very few).  It's that both women and African-Americans are on the verge of something historic:  the first female President, or the first black President.  But both barriers can't be broken, not this time.  And so one barrier will remain, and the people who've already chafed at a lifetime of second-class citizenship will once again see the color line, or the glass ceiling, closing them off.

Right now, the most committed Clinton and Obama supporters -- the ones who will make all the difference in the ground game in October and November -- are completely unwilling to concede even the slightest degree of good faith to the opposing candidate or camp.  I've spoken to Clinton supporters who are convinced the Obama campaign cheated in Iowa, and Obama supporters convinced Clinton cheated in New Hampshire.  Each side has its anecdotes and its analysis, and dresses it up as "proof," but guilt is presumed even before the other side has a chance to speak.  The prisoners at Gitmo get a fairer hearing than Democrats are willing to give one another just now.

Here's how a recent diary (since corrected by the OP), described the supporters of an opposing candidate:  Senator -----'s "camp of nasty, manipulative, gutter, attack-style followers."  

Can you tell me whether those words were written by someone who supports Hillary, or someone who supports Obama?  Does it even matter at this point?  What happens when the convention is over, and one candidate is the nominee?  Do you think words like that, and the wounds they cause, will be forgotten?  

The most passionate and committed Hillary supporters -- and there are many, whether the Obama camp cares to admit it or not -- will not forgive Senator Obama and his poison-tongued followers for crushing their dreams.  The most committed and passionate Obama supporters -- and there are many, whether the Clinton camp cares to acknowledge them -- will not forgive Senator Clinton and her underhanded minions for throttling their hopes.  Some will work for the abstraction of "party unity," to be sure.  But many will not.  Many will stay home.  And many will vote for the Republican, just to show that bitch/that bastard that there's a price to be paid for winning dirty.

The Republicans, of course -- the authoritarian party in America -- will have no such divisions come the fall.  They'll do as they're told.  If Hillary Clinton is the nominee, the GOP will unite against her regardless of who wins their nomination.  Fifteen years of white-hot hatred will see to that.  If Barack Obama is the nominee, the GOP will turn that hate toward him, and rev it up to the same level by appealing to the inherent racism of their base.

The people who stop here, who write here and read what others have written, are not the entire Democratic Party; but they are its heart.  And unless we all learn to hold our tongues and give each other the benefit of the doubt, we will not work together in the fall and we will not win in November.

I place the odds of Dems coming together at about zero.  Give or take zero.

There will be a united GOP in November.

There will be a fractured Democratic Party opposing it.

The GOP wins.  End of story.